Most people are somewhat confused and are anticipating what will happen to the indices w.r.t SEBI circular mainly due to the fact something of this sort has happened for the first time! The best one I have come across is this :
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* Index Future OI Rs 278 bn
*Stock Future OI Rs 1007 bn
*of the above FIIs is Rs 20000 cr in index future.
and for the stock futures Rs 70000 Cr.
* Foreigners mostly use the futures segment for shorting and therefore most likely covering to tune of Rs 400 - 450 bn can be expected...note they hold Rs 200 bn in index future and Rs 700 bn in stock futures. One can conservatively assume 50 percent from ODIs.
* So going forward next two weeks will see significant increase Volatility and Impact cost as future related positions in ODIs will have to be compulsorily unwound.
* Can see short covering in the sector like Pharma/Telecom/PSU Bank where FIIs have decent short positions.
* also this will lead more direct participation.
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Short Covering means the rise in prices so the impact could be quite the opposite to my expectation and charts will change in such a case.
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